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10. The Weibull Distribution


In this section, we will study a two-parameter family of distributions that has special importance in reliability.

The Basic Weibull Distribution

Mathematical Exercise 1. Show that the function given below is a probability density function for any k > 0:

f(t) = k tk - 1 exp(-tk), t > 0.

The distribution with the density in Exercise 1 is known as the Weibull distribution distribution with shape parameter k, named in honor of Wallodi Weibull.

Simulation Exercise 2. In the random variable experiment, select the Weibull distribution. Vary the shape parameter and note the shape and location of the density function. Now with k = 2, run the simulation 1000 times with an update frequency of 10. Note the apparent convergence of the empirical density to the true density.

The following exercise shows why k is called the shape parameter.

Mathematical Exercise 3. Graph the density function function. In particular, show that

  1. f is u-shaped if 0 < k < 1.
  2. f is decreasing if k = 1.
  3. f is unimodal if k > 1 with mode at [(k - 1) / k]1/k.

Mathematical Exercise 4. Show that the distribution function is

F(t) = 1 - exp(-tk), t > 0.

Mathematical Exercise 5. Show that the quantile function is

F-1(p) = [-ln(1 - p)]1/k for 0 < p < 1.

Simulation Exercise 6. In the quantile applet, select the Weibull distribution. Vary the shape parameter and note the shape and location of the density function and the distribution function.

Mathematical Exercise 7. With k = 2, find the median and the first and third quartiles. Compute the interquartlie range.

Mathematical Exercise 8. Show that the reliability function is

G(t) = exp(-tk), t > 0.

Mathematical Exercise 9. Show that the failure rate function is

h(t) = k tk - 1 for t > 0.

Mathematical Exercise 10. Graph the failure rate function h, and relate the graph to that of the density function f. In particular show that

  1. h is decreasing of k < 1
  2. h is constant if k = 1 (the exponential distribution).
  3. h is increasing if k > 2.

Thus, the Weibull distribution can be used to model devices with decreasing failure rate, constant failure rate, or increasing failure rate. This versatility is one reason for the wide use of the Weibull distribution in reliability.

Suppose that X has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k. The moments of X, and hence the mean and variance of X can be expressed in terms of the gamma function.

Mathematical Exercise 11. Show E(Xn) = gam(1 + n / k) for n > 0. Hint: In the integral for E(Xn), use the substitution u = tk. Simplify and recognize the integral as a gamma integral.

Mathematical Exercise 12. Use the result of the previous exercise to show that

  1. E(X) = gam(1 + 1 / k).
  2. var(X) = gam(1 + 2 / k) - gam2(1 + 1 / k).

Simulation Exercise 13. In the random variable experiment, select the Weibull distribution. Vary the shape parameter and note the size and location of the mean/standard deviation bar. Now with k = 2, run the simulation 1000 times with an update frequency of 10. Note the apparent convergence of the empirical moments to the true moments.

The General Weibull Distribution

The Weibull distribution is usually generalized by the inclusion of a scale parameter b. Thus, if Z has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k, then X = bZ has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k and scale parameter b.

Analogues of the results given above follow easily from basic properties of the scale transformation.

Mathematical Exercise 14. Show that the density function is

f(t) = (k tk - 1 / bk) exp[-(t / b)k], t > 0.

Note that when k = 1, the Weibull distribution reduces to the exponential distribution with scale parameter b. The special case k = 2, is called the Rayleigh distribution with scale parameter b, named after William Strutt, Lord Rayleigh.

Recall that the inclusion of a scale parameter does not effect the basic shape of the density; thus the results in Exercises 3 and 10 hold, with the following exception:

Mathematical Exercise 15. Show that when k > 1, the mode occurs at b [(k - 1) / k]1/k.

Simulation Exercise 16. In the random variable experiment, select the Weibull distribution. Vary the parameters and note the shape and location of the density function. Now with k = 3 and b = 2, run the simulation 1000 times with an update frequency of 10. Note the apparent convergence of the empirical density to the true density.

Mathematical Exercise 17. Show that the distribution function

F(t) = 1 - exp[-(t / b)k], t > 0.

Mathematical Exercise 18. Show that the quantile function is

F-1(p) = b [-ln(1 - p)]1/k for 0 < p < 1.

Mathematical Exercise 19. Show that the reliability function is

G(t) = exp[-(t / b)k], t > 0.

Mathematical Exercise 20. Show that the failure rate function is

h(t) = k tk - 1 / bk.

Mathematical Exercise 21. Show E(Xn) = bn gam(1 + n / k) for n > 0.

Mathematical Exercise 22. Show that

  1. E(X) = b gam(1 + 1 / k).
  2. var(X) = b2[gam(1 + 2 / k) - gam2(1 + 1 / k)].

Simulation Exercise 23. In the random variable experiment, select the Weibull distribution. Vary the parameters and note the size and location of the mean/standard deviation bar. Now with k = 3 and b = 2, run the simulation 1000 times with an update frequency of 10. Note the apparent convergence of the empirical moments to the true moments.

Mathematical Exercise 24. The lifetime T of a device (in hours) has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k = 1.2 and scale parameter b = 1000.

  1. Find the probability that the device will last at least 1500 hours.
  2. Approximate the mean and standard deviation of T.
  3. Compute the failure rate function.

Transformations

There is a simple one-to-one transformation between Weibull distributed variables and exponential distributed variables.

Mathematical Exercise 25. Show that

  1. If X has the exponential distribution with parameter 1, then Y = b X1/k has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k and scale parameter b.
  2. If Y has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k and scale parameter b, then X = (Y / b)k has the exponential distribution with parameter 1.

The following exercise is a restatement of the fact that b is a scale parameter.

Mathematical Exercise 26. Suppose that X has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter k and scale parameter b. Show that if c > 0 then cX has the Weibull distribution with shape parameter parameter k and scale parameter bc.

Mathematical Exercise 27. Suppose that (X, Y) has the standard bivariate normal distribution. Show that the polar coordinate distance R given below has the Rayleigh distribution with scale parameter 21/2:

R = (X2 + Y2)1/2.